INDEED ALL MEN OF CONSCIENCE SHOULD INSIST ON A VIOLENCE-FREE, FAIR ELECTIONS……NOTICED HOW THE MASS CHASED AND BOOED SECURITY PERSONNEL IN OSHOGBO
Anyway I’m of the opinion the situation in Osun is quite different from that of Ekiti. The majority of the popular masses that will bother to vote in Osun should be voting for Aregbesola and this is due mainly to the political mileage his policy (however faulty) on education earned his regime. He offered some form of subsidized education (not free education) at basic levels, which benefited many of the rural poor. Of course, this policy is full of faults, substandard and is not sustainable. This is not the kind that a socialist government would implement. However, this program accounts for a large percent of his support.
Aregbesola unlike others in APC shareholders, including Adams Oshiomhole, is formerly from the Nigerian Left. He is not as arrogant & isolated from the masses like the mass majority of the owners of APC are and not as hated. In fact, he is the most ‘left’ of the Nigerian elites. He was one of those ex-left elements who sold their souls to capital in the 90s.
Of course, the political mileage he gained from education he lost in other sectors. He too attacked workers, refused to increase wages, in fact owed workers’ wages till some weeks ago. He couldn’t create jobs as promised. Teritary education in Osun state is still very expensive. Real development has not taken place. The list goes on. These explains why PDP still have a base & will still pack a good punch among the minority that will bother to vote.
However, we in the days of comparing devils and the odd favor his devil. He may end up been the “last man standing” for APC in southwest Nigeria. Why? PDP in spite of its landslide victory in Ekiti, feeding on mass anger against APC there, its beheading of rebel governors, the steeling of its Christian & ethnic support base, maneuvering out of the crisis that plagued it last year and gang up of the most key members of the Nigerian elites in it, the party is still in crisis and very weak. The party’s strategists, both paid & volunteers, have been capable of steering it out of the storm for a while but I don’t think they will be too much in a hurry to rush into another storm of uncertainties.
This factor may pay Aregbe. He has more popular support over the arrogance (Omisore) PDP is fielding and has the ability to play the leper for some days if he is crudely rigged out. He has a whole layer of ex-leftists on his payroll.Some within the PDP top echelon are insisting that they go for the Osun using the crudest means, I’m sure Omisore is up to the task of stealing mandate. They are of the opinion that if they deal with Aregbe in Osun it will further create more panic in APC and make more people jump boat, that is stimulate a domino effect. This is true no doubt outside Osun but at what cost. The masses in Osun are an important factor. The opposite of what happened in Ekiti can happen in Osun. Mass protests can’t be ruled out in Osun in case of crude rigging.
Of course, the PDP core may desire a humiliation of Aregbe but the cost may be very huge. For one, INEC can get dented; this can complicate things for 2015. If this happens it may complicate their ability to feed on the anger of the masses in the three remaining APC states in southwest Ogun, Oyo & Lagos. The APC is bound to fall in these states.
This is why I think the core PDP may retreat, after all, those rig and run away, live to rig another day. They can leave Osun for APC because they know they will take more states from the southwest come 2015. And they also need to preserve the credibility of their electoral tool, INEC & also avoid international condemnation from bourgeois liberals. Not that they usually give a damn but they may not want noise now for the sake of 2015.
However, we may never say, those who want to finish off the APC in Osun may have their way. I’m sure with this last line statement many APC people will develop blood pressure. That is their business.
What concerns me most is the tragedy of the situation, the lack of a true alternative for the masses of Osun. This is in spite of the Labour Party, of which I m a card carrier, contesting. In the first instance, the man carrying the LP flag is not a labour man in any way not to talk about him been a socialist. The NLC has even appeared to have damned the party. The party is now more of a reserve for PDP. The situation is that anyway events turns out the masses have already lost.
The main struggle remains is the fight for building a truly working people’s party.
contesting
Written by Saint Ola Jericho
Photo from Niyi Akinsiju Facebook
