The geopolitical landscape of West Africa is undergoing a profound transformation with the formalization of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—a coalition comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The establishment of this bloc signals a decisive break from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a move rooted in political, economic, and security considerations. While the secession carries profound implications for regional integration, it also underscores the deep fractures within ECOWAS, particularly regarding sovereignty, governance, and external influences.
At the heart of this realignment lies the assertion of national autonomy by these Sahelian nations, each of which has witnessed military takeovers in recent years. The embattled governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have consistently voiced their discontent with ECOWAS, accusing the regional body of serving as an instrument of Western influence, particularly France, while failing to address the pressing security crises that have plagued the region. The rise of jihadist insurgencies, exacerbated by porous borders and inadequate state capacity, has fueled widespread disillusionment with ECOWAS’s effectiveness. Consequently, the creation of the AES represents a strategic recalibration, shifting towards a model of mutual defense, economic self-reliance, and geopolitical diversification.
From an economic standpoint, the withdrawal from ECOWAS presents both challenges and opportunities. The three countries share landlocked geographies and have historically depended on coastal ECOWAS nations for trade, particularly through ports in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Benin. The severance from ECOWAS’s economic framework, including the loss of preferential trade agreements and the shared West African CFA franc monetary system (for Burkina Faso and Mali), raises concerns over potential economic isolation. However, these nations have signaled a willingness to explore alternative partnerships, particularly with Russia, China, and other non-Western actors, in pursuit of diversified economic cooperation. The prospect of transitioning to national currencies, while fraught with short-term volatility, is being positioned as a move toward financial sovereignty, breaking free from post-colonial monetary dependencies.
Historically, ECOWAS was conceived as a mechanism for fostering economic integration and collective security in West Africa. However, the recent trajectory of the organization has exposed its structural weaknesses. The bloc’s imposition of economic sanctions on military-led regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger sanctions that were perceived as disproportionately harsh and counterproductive further alienated these governments. The punitive measures, ostensibly aimed at compelling a return to civilian rule, instead deepened anti-ECOWAS sentiment among both political elites and the broader population. The AES, in contrast, promotes an alternative security doctrine that prioritizes regional military cooperation without the constraints of external diplomatic pressures.
The strategic calculus behind this breakaway is also influenced by the shifting geopolitical currents in Africa. The erosion of French influence, accelerated by anti-French sentiment and the military regimes’ pivot toward Moscow, signals a broader realignment. Russian military cooperation, through both state agreements and private military contractors, has provided these regimes with an alternative security apparatus that circumvents Western oversight. China’s interest in Africa’s natural resources and infrastructure projects also presents potential avenues for economic engagement outside of ECOWAS’s traditional frameworks.
Yet, despite the rhetoric of self-reliance, the road ahead for the AES remains uncertain. The economic interdependencies within ECOWAS are deeply entrenched, and the departure of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger raises complex logistical and financial questions. The long-term viability of this alliance will depend on its ability to establish robust economic mechanisms, ensure sustainable security cooperation, and forge new trade partnerships. The geopolitical ramifications will extend beyond West Africa, as regional blocs such as the African Union and even global powers reassess their engagements in the Sahel.
Ultimately, the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States represents more than just a political schism—it is a statement of sovereignty, a recalibration of regional power dynamics, and a test of ECOWAS’s resilience as an institution. Whether this breakaway proves to be a momentary rupture or the beginning of a new regional order will depend on the ability of these Sahelian nations to translate their political aspirations into tangible economic and security gains. As West Africa navigates this period of uncertainty, the AES stands as both a challenge to the existing order and an experiment in alternative regionalism.
By : Jide Adesina
