Global cocoa prices have spiked sharply following Ghana’s announcement of a significant cut to its cocoa production forecast for the 2024/2025 season, raising concerns over supply shortages in the global chocolate industry.
The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) revealed that the country’s output is expected to fall well below initial projections due to adverse weather conditions, widespread disease outbreaks, and illegal mining activities affecting cocoa-growing regions.
Officials say the new estimate stands at approximately 580,000 metric tonnes—down from earlier forecasts of 800,000 tonnes. This marks one of Ghana’s lowest outputs in over a decade and comes at a time when global demand for cocoa continues to climb.
“The combination of black pod disease, swollen shoot virus, and encroachment by illegal miners has significantly damaged cocoa farms,” a senior COCOBOD official said. “We are taking urgent steps to contain the crisis, but the impact on production is already severe.”
Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa producer after neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, and any disruption in its supply typically has ripple effects across international markets. Following the announcement, cocoa futures on international commodity exchanges surged by more than 7% in a single day, reflecting traders’ fears of tighter supply and rising costs for manufacturers.
Industry stakeholders warn that continued shortfalls could lead to higher retail prices for chocolate products globally, especially as manufacturers scramble to secure sufficient supplies.
Local cocoa farmers have expressed frustration over the recurring challenges. Many cite a lack of access to disease-resistant seedlings, poor farm roads, and low investment in modern farming techniques as key barriers to maintaining yields.
The government has pledged to step up support for the sector, including the expansion of replanting programs, increased distribution of fungicides, and tighter regulation of illegal mining on agricultural land.
As the situation unfolds, analysts say the global cocoa market will remain volatile, with further price hikes likely if weather patterns and disease outbreaks continue to affect West African producers.
