Nigeria’s humanitarian landscape sits at the intersection of protracted conflict, climate shocks, and deep structural inequities. These forces converge most acutely in the lives of internally displaced persons (IDPs), a population composed disproportionately of women, adolescent girls, and young children. Within this context, life expectancy is not an abstract demographic statistic but a lived probability shaped by early marriage, gender- and sexual-based violence, and trafficking risks. This essay synthesizes the latest publicly available data and field reporting to trace causal pathways, quantify trends where possible, and surface program and policy implications for protection, health, and justice systems.
Life expectancy as a barometer of structural risk
On national averages, life expectancy in Nigeria remains among the lowest globally for a country of its population and income class, reflecting cumulative risks across the life course—neonatal and child mortality, communicable disease burden, maternal mortality, conflict-related injury and psychological trauma, and non-communicable disease in under-served regions. The World Bank’s most recent update places Nigeria’s total life expectancy at roughly the mid-50s in 2023, a modest improvement over the last decade but far below global and regional comparators. 
Averages, however, obscure the steeper survival gradients faced by displaced families in the North-East and North-West. Healthy life expectancy is further depressed by the compounding effects of displacement—interrupted immunization and care-seeking, malnutrition during the lean season, exposure to gender-based violence (GBV), and catastrophic obstetric events in settings where EmONC (emergency obstetric and newborn care) is thin or absent. WHO’s country profile underscores the gap between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, signaling many years lived with disease or injury, a gap that widens in humanitarian settings. 
Maternal mortality sits at the most tragic edge of this reality. Nigeria contributes a very large share of the world’s maternal deaths, with peer-reviewed analyses and journalism converging on an estimate in the tens of thousands annually and modeled ratios that hover near or above 900–1,000 deaths per 100,000 live births in recent years—figures that climb in conflict-affected states, where facility access and blood, anesthesia, and surgical capacity are inconsistent. Aid disruptions since 2024 have further strained maternal care in the North-East, threatening hard-won reductions in preventable deaths.  
The scale and geography of displacement
Nigeria’s internal displacement is dynamic and multi-causal, combining the decade-long insurgency in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (the BAY states) with farmer–herder conflict, banditry in the North-West, and cyclical flooding in Middle Belt states. The IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) reports more than 1.3 million IDPs across selected North-Central and North-West states as of April 2024, while broader datasets for the North-East and nationwide aggregations during 2023–2024 place total internal displacement in the millions when all active theaters are included. Protracted displacement is common in the BAY states, with a majority displaced for five years or more, reshaping social networks, livelihoods, and exposure to harm.  
Displacement status changes the denominators that define risk. In camp-like settings and informal settlements, population density, limited lighting and WASH infrastructure, and fragile security perimeters create environmental conditions conducive to violence and exploitation. For out-of-camp IDPs dispersed in host communities, assistance is more difficult to target, and reliance on informal work, transactional sex for survival, or early marriage as a perceived protective mechanism becomes more common.
Child and early/forced marriage in context
Child, early, and forced marriage (CEFM) in Nigeria is shaped by overlapping drivers—poverty, conflict, social norms around honor and sexuality, gaps in statutory enforcement, and limited educational opportunity for girls. UNICEF’s Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS 2021) and related updates show that Nigeria remains a high-burden country for child marriage, with pronounced regional disparities: prevalence is markedly higher in the North-West and North-East compared to the South. Global and regional syntheses place West and Central Africa as the world’s highest-prevalence region, and Nigeria’s large population means national progress is pivotal for global gains.  
Conflict and displacement intensify these patterns. Families facing insecurity, food shortages, and loss of income sometimes resort to marrying daughters earlier, interpreting marriage as a protective strategy against sexual violence or as a way to reduce household dependency ratios. Among IDPs, the calculus is especially stark, with protection risks, camp rumours, and the absence of schooling pushing decisions toward early unions. Current data tools capture this imperfectly, but humanitarian protection monitoring and qualitative studies in the North-East repeatedly document spikes in early marriage proposals after attacks, displacement movements, or aid pipeline breaks.  
The demographic and health implications are immediate. MICS 2021 records an adolescent birth rate of about 75 per 1,000 girls aged 15–19, a figure associated with elevated risks of eclampsia, obstructed labor, obstetric fistula, and neonatal complications. Early childbearing, in turn, truncates schooling; the link to lifetime earnings and intergenerational poverty is well established. Evidence from Nigeria indicates higher total fertility among women married as children and persistent gaps in modern contraceptive uptake and birth spacing—factors that increase the probability of maternal morbidity and mortality across the reproductive years.  
Gender- and sexual-based violence: prevalence, patterns, and service gaps
Gender-based violence in humanitarian settings follows predictable contours but with local specificity in Nigeria. Across the general population, the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey found that roughly a third of women had experienced physical violence since age 15, with 14 percent reporting violence in the previous year—prevalence measures that tend to be higher in conflict-affected regions and that undercount due to stigma and access barriers to reporting. Within IDP settings, mixed-methods research and operational protection data describe high rates of intimate partner violence, sexual assault during firewood collection and water fetching, exploitation by gatekeepers of aid, and forced or coerced sex in exchange for basic goods or safe passage.  
UNFPA’s humanitarian reporting from 2024–2025 documents rising GBV risk in the North-East and North-West amid renewed non-state armed group activity and climate shocks that degrade camp infrastructure and community protection mechanisms. The destruction of safe spaces, latrines, and lighting after floods or attacks increases exposure; when women and adolescent girls must walk further for water or fuel, assault risk rises. Service availability is uneven: clinical management of rape (CMR), psychosocial first aid, and case management are present in some hubs but thin in secondary towns and along displacement corridors. Funding fluctuations since 2024 have forced rationing of SRH/GBV services just as needs expand. 
The governance dimension is sensitive but essential to acknowledge. Human rights investigations have alleged abuses against women and girls associated—rightly or wrongly—with insurgent groups, including unlawful detention and sexual violence; while the Nigerian military disputes aspects of these reports and cites improvements in compliance with international humanitarian law, the allegations underscore the need for robust survivor-centered accountability and access to services regardless of perceived affiliation. For survivors returning from abduction or captivity, stigma compounds trauma, and the risk of re-victimization is non-trivial.  
GBV against persons with disabilities remains particularly under-documented. Earlier work in Plateau State drew attention to compounded risks during conflict; in crowded sites where mobility aids are lost and access routes are blocked, women with disabilities face heightened vulnerability and are often excluded from program design and grievance mechanisms. While dated, these findings are echoed informally by disability advocates in the North-East and argue for systematic inclusion of disability data in protection monitoring tools. 
Human trafficking and exploitation dynamics among IDPs
Human trafficking in Nigeria predates the current displacement crisis but has adapted to it, exploiting the vulnerabilities of those uprooted by violence. IOM and State Department assessments identify IDPs, unaccompanied and separated children, and survivors of GBV as priority risk groups for both internal and cross-border trafficking. The forms are varied: domestic servitude, agricultural and artisanal mining labor, sexual exploitation in urban centers, and the particularly egregious phenomenon of so-called “baby factories,” where women and girls are coerced into pregnancy and their infants sold. Conflict-affected IDPs, newly arrived in cities without documentation or social support, are frequent targets for recruiters.   
Boko Haram and splinter factions have engaged in trafficking-like practices—abduction, forced marriage, sexual slavery, and forced labor—amounting to grave violations of international law. Return and reintegration for survivors require layered support: medical care, psychosocial counseling, legal aid, safe shelter, and livelihoods programming that reduces the economic pull of exploitative arrangements. Humanitarian programs in the BAY states increasingly integrate trafficking risk screening into GBV and child protection casework, but coverage is incomplete and case referrals can falter where state systems are overburdened or where survivors fear retaliation. 
Interlocking pathways: how early marriage, GBV, and trafficking depress life expectancy
The mechanisms by which CEFM, GBV, and trafficking reduce life expectancy are direct and indirect. Early marriage increases adolescent pregnancy, which carries higher risks of hemorrhage, eclampsia, sepsis, and obstructed labor; in settings with limited EmONC, these conditions translate into excess maternal mortality and chronic morbidities such as fistula that contribute to years lived with disability. Sexual violence, whether within intimate partnerships or as assault, elevates risk for HIV and other STIs, unwanted pregnancy, unsafe abortion, and complex PTSD; the cumulative effects drive higher mortality and reduce healthy life years. Trafficking overlays extreme exploitation—long hours, hazardous work, malnutrition, violence—and isolates survivors from services, adding occupational and mental health risks to the reproductive health burden. Each pathway is magnified by displacement, which interrupts schooling, erodes social capital, and thins the safety net of extended family and community elders who might otherwise intervene.
For children in IDP families, the ramifications show up early. Under-five mortality remains stubbornly high in poorer and conflict-affected areas, though MICS 2021 documents national progress since 2016. Malnutrition peaks during lean seasons when assistance pipelines tighten; disrupted immunization exposes children to measles and other vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks. Traumatic stress in caregivers, especially mothers who are GBV survivors, is associated with lower care-seeking and poorer adherence to infant feeding recommendations. These early-life insults shape cohort life expectancy curves decades into the future. 
Precise quantification for IDP sub-populations is constrained by ethics, security, and mobility. Household rosters change as people move between camps, host communities, and return areas; stigma depresses disclosure of GBV and trafficking; and adolescent unions blur the line between “consensual” and coerced marriage in contexts where a child cannot legally consent. Nonetheless, triangulation is increasingly possible. DTM rounds offer periodic headcounts and site characteristics; MICS and DHS provide population-level baselines for child marriage, adolescent fertility, and violence; humanitarian sitreps and protection monitoring bring trend signals, such as spikes in reported incidents following attacks or floods; and investigative journalism and human rights reports, while not substitutes for surveillance, highlight patterns that formal systems miss. The analytical imperative is to use these streams together, recognizing each source’s bias.  
The evidence base points toward a layered approach that treats CEFM, GBV, trafficking, and survival not as discrete silos but as interdependent risks along a life-course.
For prevention, the most effective anti-CEFM strategies pair social norms work with tangible alternatives—cash or voucher assistance linked to girls’ continued schooling, catch-up learning and safe transport for displaced learners, and adolescent-friendly SRH services that include contraception and post-rape care. In the North-East and North-West, investments in lighting, lockable latrines, and closer water points reduce exposure during daily tasks. When floods or attacks damage infrastructure, rapid repairs are not cosmetic; they are protection interventions that directly lower assault risk. UNFPA’s 2024–2025 reporting illustrates how the loss of safe spaces and WASH assets in IDP sites correlates with heightened GBV incidents, underscoring the need to treat these assets as essential services. 
For response, survivor-centered services must be reachable within the 72-hour window for clinical care after sexual assault, which implies prepositioned post-rape kits, trained providers on predictable rosters, and transport solutions for insecure hours. Case management platforms in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe increasingly integrate trafficking screening and referrals; scaling these models to North-West displacement hotspots would close a critical gap. Accountability is equally vital: credible, independent mechanisms to investigate alleged abuses—whether by non-state actors, community members, or security personnel—are necessary both for justice and for restoring survivor trust in institutions. 
For systems, sustaining maternal and newborn care saves lives now and improves life expectancy curves for the next generation. Even modest improvements in EmONC signal functions, blood availability, respectful maternity care, and referral transport produce measurable declines in maternal deaths. In the North-East, the fragility of funding since 2024 has shown how quickly gains can reverse; protecting SRH/GBV budgets during fiscal shocks is therefore a life-expectancy intervention as much as a rights obligation. 
A practical evidence agenda can proceed on parallel tracks. First, routine inclusion of displacement status, disability, and age-disaggregation in GBV and child-protection data systems would improve precision without compromising safety. Second, targeted MICS/DHS analytical briefs for the BAY and North-West zones can draw on existing microdata to quantify gradients in early marriage, adolescent fertility, and violence exposure by security intensity and displacement history. Third, harmonizing DTM site characteristics with protection indicators—latrine-to-user ratios, lighting coverage, distance to water—would allow operational teams to model where infrastructure upgrades would yield the largest reductions in exposure to violence. The building blocks for each step already exist in Nigeria’s survey ecosystem; the challenge is coordination and sustained financing.  
Life expectancy among Nigeria’s displaced communities is shaped less by biology than by preventable social and political choices. Child marriage, gender- and sexual-based violence, and trafficking are not isolated violations; they are structural determinants of survival that compress women’s and girls’ futures into narrower, risk-filled horizons. The good news is that the interventions that work—keeping girls in school with predictable cash support, restoring safe WASH and lighting after shocks, ensuring 24/7 access to survivor-centered care, and embedding trafficking screening into protection casework—are known, implementable, and cost-effective relative to the lives saved and the futures protected. The data now available, while imperfect, is strong enough to guide action. What remains is political will, predictable funding, and a commitment to center the voices of displaced women and girls in the design of the systems meant to protect them.
