Ethiopia’s military personnel currently deployed in Somalia are set to remain outside the formal ATMIS mandate, following a diplomatic impasse over a controversial agreement Ethiopia signed with Somaliland earlier this year.
Somalia’s government has insisted it will not accept Ethiopian troops in its newly established African Union mission, citing concerns over Ethiopia’s separate port and naval rights deal in Somaliland that it views as a breach of Somali sovereignty. National Security Adviser Hussein Sheikh‑Ali has made clear that all Ethiopian forces must withdraw once ATMIS’s current mandate lapses at the end of the year.
Despite this, Addis Ababa has refused to reintegrate its forces under the ATMIS banner. Ethiopian diplomats argue their troops are deployed through separate bilateral arrangements with Somalia and are performing vital counter‑insurgency duties in regions where al‑Shabaab poses persistent threats, including Jubaland and South West State.
In a statement from the Ethiopian foreign ministry, spokesperson Nebiyu Tedla acknowledged that no official withdrawal notice has been submitted by Mogadishu. He called for “comprehensive consultations” between the African Union, the UN, troop‑contributing countries, and Somali authorities to forge a “careful deployment strategy” as ATMIS concluding its current phase.
The disagreement intensifies regional tensions, reviving fears that a sudden Ethiopian pull‑out could create a security gap ahead of the planned transition to the AUSSOM mission on January 1, 2025. Somali officials are reportedly exploring alternative troop contributions, including from Egypt, while some local leaders in Jubaland and South West have expressed support for retaining Ethiopian military presence for internal security continuity.
In recent weeks, Ethiopian forces have deepened their operational footprint in southern Somalia despite the ATMIS drawdown. Last month, armored units reportedly advanced into key border districts, prompting warnings from Mogadishu that unilateral troop deployments are unacceptable.
As Addis Ababa and Mogadishu continue face‑to‑face talks indirectly mediated by regional partners the future role of Ethiopian forces in Somalia hangs in the balance. With ATMIS’s exit looming, diplomatic and military strategy will both shape this critical security juncture in the Horn.
