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AFRIKA HERALD

POLITICAL ANALYSIS OF SOUTH WEST, NIGERIA AND LESSONS LEARNED FROM EKITI STATE ELECTION

 

 

The Tinubu team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A complete overview of the election by ‘jide Adesina and edited by Veronica Olayinka Adesina

The greatness of a man does not lie in his ability to fall, but ability to fall and rise again.” -Late Chief Obafemi Awolowo.

Change will come, if only we can try to re-write history –
Like a bad dream, supporters of All Progressives Congress (APC) are still trying to understand the tsunami that hit them in the Ekiti governorship election. Governor Kayode Fayemi had been widely acknowledged as having performed very well, a sentiment that may have warped their political strategies and contributed to his defeat at the June 21 poll. Their assumptions cost them a heavy price; he lost to PDP Ayo Fayose, a former governor of the state. Why did this happen?

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The Adaramodu damage: When Governor Kayode Fayemi came in, one man deserved major part of the credit: a certain Yemi Adaramodu who was the director of communications in the Kayode Fayemi Campaign Organisation.

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He was later appointed the chief of staff to the governor. However, upon his appointment, Adaramodu became so powerful that many within and outside government circles believed he was the de facto governor. Many other aides of the governor gravitated towards him. A source told us how Adaramodu, during the appointment of caretaker chairmen, singlehandedly picked 12 out of the 16 local government caretakers nominees that were later approved by the governor. He succeeded in alienating the governor from so many political interests that would have been useful for him in his quest for a second term in office. He was able to create an alternate power center within the government which he used to dispense favour in furtherance of his own 2018 rumoured governorship ambition. His house and office were always a Mecca for those looking for one favour or the other from government. There were allegations of a hit squad being run without Fayemi’s knowledge.

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The squad was allegedly accused of being behind the attack on Labour Party members in Emure-Ekiti where one Foluso Ogundare was killed. At this point, Fayemi began to cut him to size. He was penciled down to head the re-election campaign committee but was later stripped of most of his responsibilities and duties, however, the damage had already been done because of the privileges accorded him in the beginning.

The vice-presidential rumour: One of the issues troubling the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is the choice of a presidential candidate and his running mate. The party has often been accused of pushing a Muslim-Muslim ticket, with Asiwaju Bola Tinubu as the running mate to whomever emerges in the north; permutation towards avoiding this scenario brought up the possibility of a southern Christian as a running mate. One of the names that featured regularly was Fayemi, but the idea was not welcome in the corridors of APC powers. The massive support he would have received from Lagos for his re-election bid diminished and vanished, although he was also said to have failed to “lubricate” the relationship in the last four years. “He failed to understand that somebody spent money, time and energy to make him governor in the first place,” a retired civil servant of the Ekiti and APC stalwart told The Afrika Market some days before the election.

The anger of teachers/civil servants: Anyone who knows the politics of Ekiti will know that no politician can be in the bad books of teachers and civil servants and expect to win any election in the state.

Kayode-FayemiFayemi got into trouble with them very early in his administration. First was the issue of promotion and payment of the new teachers’ salary scale, TSS. Fayemi was said to have told teachers that he would not be able to pay the money owing to paucity of funds in government coffers. That was in 2011. But a month to the election, he announced that he would implement it. In the same vein, the service re-classification exercise, though good on paper, was a political suicide. The exercise saw to demotion of some principals to vice-principals and vice-principals to classroom teachers. In fact, some of those affected could not accept the “humiliation” and as a result  put in their retirement notice. Primary school teachers refused to take the re-classification examination but were aware of the possibility of being forced to take the test or face the sack, should the governor be re-elected. This fear prompted them to mobilize massively against the governor on the eve of the election.

Lack of political structure: As much as Fayemi recorded laudable achievements as Ekiti State governor, sympathizers of the governor had always worried that his lack of strong and virile political structure was a big minus for him as he sought a second term in office. Apart from party cells across the state, many believed that the governor needed to have a core of political loyalists, “enforcers” and foot soldiers who would always ensure his ‘connectivity’ or ‘touch’ with the ordinary people. These are people who are expected to pop up at people’s social events and meetings, liaise with them and “deliver” a message from the governor. Fayemi did not have this set of people to do this type of necessary grassroots work. Many attributed this to his refusal to conduct local government election throughout his tenure ─ a situation that brought about using caretaker chairmen, of which, the longest among them spent only one year in office before being removed. During the election, beyond party structure, there were no strong political figures who could swing things in favour of the governor when the die was cast.

Fayose’s popularity: He might have a murder rap still hanging over his head and one or two issues to sort out with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), but the candidate of the PDP and winner of the June 21 governorship election in Ekiti State, Ayodele Fayose, is immensely popular. He is a strong grassroots mobiliser who understands the language of the common people. His position and words resonate with them so much that they see him as part of them. Across the three senatorial zones, Fayose remains a very popular politician whom the electorate was ready to forgive for his past “sins” and give him their mandate.

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During his campaigns, he was pulling massive crowds wherever he went. In fact, during the mega rally in Ado-Ekiti when President Goodluck Jonathan came to present the PDP flag to him, his vests were being sold to party members when ordinarily, they should have been distributed free of charge. In contrast, Fayemi, despite being governor for almost four years, failed to develop that type of ‘touch’ with the common man. They saw him as a “foreigner” and “intellectual” that they know nothing about.

Still going along the line of his campaign strategy, Governor-elect Mr. Ayodele Fayose has promised to work with Governor Kayode Fayemi and Mr Opeyemi Bamidele to develop Ekiti State. Addressing newsmen in Spotless hotel, Ado-Ekiti, Mr Fayose said though he emerged winner of the contest, there was no winner or loser in the governorship elections. He continued, “Governor Kayode Fayemi, my brother Opeyemi Bamidele and others that we contested together, that have conceded and accepted me as their governor, I want to thank them. I want to assure them that I will work with all of them. The government belongs to all of us. Four years is a very short time in the life of any administration, I want to let them know that it will be four years of all of us in government. There is no winner, no loser.” He added, “Governor Fayemi has called me to concede defeat and I will see him tomorrow, hopefully for us to let the public know that we are together, irrespective of our past. Ekiti belongs to all of us because a governor has only got a term and tenure but Ekiti will remain forever. I salute Fayemi’s courage for accepting me and his readiness to allow peace and love reign in our state. I am assuring you that this is Ayo Fayose, who is older, wiser and ready to work with everybody.”

Oyo state has the same political history with Ekiti state, would history be kind to Ajimobi? Not sure – the pacesetters of Oyo state has it’s pseudo-ethnical influx in the rational thinking of the diverse enclave of the empire, maybe Oke-Ogun people of Oyo might experience a glimpse of leadership of the state come 2015.

Ogun state may retain Amosun as the governor, he seems to understand the dynamic structure of the state and knows how to play his politics with political stalwarts of the state. Only time will tell when the romance with ‘Baba Owu’ will last, not to mention the lion escape of Gbenga Daniels. According to Razak .O of ‘This Day Business,’ Amosun understands the youth and is more pragmatic towards social needs of the youth.

As for the slapping Governor, Comr Oshiomole, perhaps more widows will enjoy the largess of the governor whenever he embarks on his street tours. Categorically, it could be said that he has a strong historical antecedent of political struggle and infrastructural development, well…at least better than many leaders of the past in Edo state.

We might say, it is the end of an era for APC in Lagos state, but a solid continuation of policy progression of technological development in the state of Osun. Would ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola dissociate himself from Tinubu, no! Cocky about his popularity in the State, maybe? Good to the downtrodden and grassroots people, Yes! His record with public and civil service men – awesome, primary education policy- the best in Nigeria, his implementation of social and welfare structure – excellent …..In my own opinion Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola deserves the second term. But hey the people of Osun will decide as the people of Ekiti did on June 21.

Dream land in fantasy world where reality super-impose objectivity …the beat of the drum is still loud who will dance in Lagos….’Eko oni baje o.’

 

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