There is a point in every nation’s history when leadership must be judged not merely by the comfort of the present moment, but by the direction in which the country is being taken. Nigeria is at such a moment.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not inherit an economy without problems in May 2023. He inherited a country burdened by fuel subsidies, foreign-exchange distortions, declining revenues, debt-service pressures, insecurity, energy constraints and years of structural weaknesses. His response was to undertake reforms that were always going to be painful before their benefits could become visible.

That pain must not be dismissed.

Nigerians have experienced inflation, higher food prices, pressure on household incomes, transportation difficulties and a general increase in the cost of living. These are real experiences, and no responsible government should pretend otherwise. But acknowledging the hardship should not prevent us from asking a second and equally important question: what are Nigerians sacrificing for, and what is being built with that sacrifice?

That is where the Tinubu administration deserves a deeper and more historically informed assessment.

The removal of the petrol subsidy and the reform of the foreign-exchange system were not ordinary policy adjustments. They were attempts to confront structural distortions that had consumed enormous public resources while failing to create a sustainable economic foundation. The administration chose reform over postponement.

The immediate consequences were difficult. But the purpose of reform is not merely to make today comfortable; it is to make tomorrow more sustainable.

Three years into the administration, official government figures show an economy that has expanded substantially in nominal terms, stronger federation revenues, increased foreign capital inflows and significantly higher external reserves. Government also reports that inflation has fallen considerably from its December 2024 peak. These indicators do not mean that the ordinary Nigerian has suddenly stopped feeling economic pressure. They mean, however, that the foundation upon which recovery can be built is changing.

The most visible transformation may ultimately come from the energy sector.

For decades, Nigeria lived with the contradiction of being one of Africa’s major crude-oil producers while importing enormous quantities of refined petroleum products. That contradiction was economically irrational and strategically dangerous.

The emergence of the Dangote Refinery, alongside the revival and expansion of other domestic refining capacity, represents a potentially historic change. The 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote facility has become a major participant in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry and has increasingly supplied refined products to domestic and international markets. The Central Bank has also reported that the availability of refined products from the refinery contributed to a substantial decline in Nigeria’s fuel imports.

This is bigger than the refinery itself.

It is about Nigeria beginning to capture more value from its own natural resources. It is about retaining foreign exchange that would otherwise leave the country to purchase refined petroleum. It is about developing an industrial ecosystem around refining, petrochemicals, logistics, engineering, maritime services and manufacturing.

Nigeria must not merely export crude and import prosperity from somewhere else. We must refine, manufacture, process and create value at home.

That is the larger meaning of the reform agenda.

The same trajectory can be seen in education. For years, Nigerian universities were repeatedly disrupted by industrial actions, with students spending months outside classrooms because of unresolved structural problems. The administration has introduced the Nigerian Education Loan Fund while continuing investments through TETFund and tertiary institutions.

By 2026, the government reported that NELFUND had reached more than 1.5 million students, with hundreds of billions of naira disbursed in loans and upkeep support. TETFund projects have also continued across universities, polytechnics and colleges of education, with investments directed toward teaching, learning, research and skills development.

The significance goes beyond the statistics.

A young Nigerian who remains in school is an investment in the country’s future. A university that functions consistently is an investment in national productivity. A generation that can graduate without repeatedly losing academic years to prolonged strikes is an investment in national stability.

Education policy must therefore be judged not only by what happens inside lecture halls today but by what kind of workforce Nigeria is preparing for the next twenty years.

Agriculture is another frontier that deserves attention.

Nigeria cannot build a sustainable economy while importing too much of what it can produce. The administration’s agricultural interventions have included support for seedlings, fertiliser, mechanisation, irrigation, finance and market access, alongside efforts to establish agricultural corridors and strengthen supply chains.

The challenge remains enormous because food inflation has placed extraordinary pressure on Nigerian families. But this is precisely why agricultural transformation must be treated as an economic-security project rather than merely an agricultural programme.

Food security is national security.

The same principle applies to the emerging blue economy. Nigeria possesses an extraordinary maritime advantage stretching from Lagos through the Niger Delta and across its coastal and inland waterways. Properly developed, the blue economy can generate employment, strengthen ports and logistics, expand maritime commerce, stimulate fisheries and aquaculture, support shipbuilding and repair, and connect Nigerian businesses more effectively with the global economy.

This is the Nigeria that must emerge from reform: a country that stops looking at its resources merely as commodities and begins seeing them as platforms for industrial transformation.

Then there is the quiet revolution taking place in Nigeria’s digital economy.

Fintech has changed how millions of Nigerians transfer money, receive payments, conduct business and participate in commerce. The growth of digital payments means Nigerians increasingly do not need to carry large amounts of physical cash everywhere they go. That has implications not only for convenience but also for financial inclusion, commerce, transparency and, in many circumstances, personal security.

Nigeria’s digital transformation, therefore, should not be dismissed as simply a technology trend. It is becoming part of the country’s economic infrastructure.

The administration’s wider technology agenda, including digital-skills development and the 3 Million Technical Talent programme, reflects the recognition that Nigeria’s greatest economic resource is ultimately not oil. It is the Nigerian mind.

There are also interventions in housing, consumer credit, healthcare, transport and infrastructure. The Renewed Hope housing programme has expanded across several states, while CREDICORP is designed to widen access to consumer credit. The administration has also pushed CNG and electric-mobility initiatives as part of an effort to reduce transportation costs and diversify the country’s energy mix.

Infrastructure is equally important.

Roads, rail, ports, power and telecommunications may not always produce immediate political excitement, but they are the arteries through which an economy breathes. The administration says more than 2,700 kilometres of highways and major roads are under construction, rehabilitation or reconstruction, alongside rail-modernisation projects and investments in energy infrastructure.

This is why the conversation about the Tinubu presidency should not be reduced to the price of rice, petrol or transport alone, even though those prices matter profoundly.

The more important question is whether Nigeria is moving from a consumption-dependent and structurally distorted economy toward one that produces more, refines more, exports more, educates more, digitises more and keeps more of its wealth within the domestic economy.

The answer is not that every problem has been solved. It clearly has not.

Nigeria still faces insecurity, unemployment, poverty, infrastructure deficits, food-price pressures and institutional challenges. The government itself acknowledges that the benefits of reform have not yet been felt sufficiently in the daily lives of ordinary Nigerians.

But a country cannot abandon every difficult reform simply because the transition is painful.

What Nigeria needs now is continuity, accountability and intelligent adjustment—not a return to the structural weaknesses that produced the crisis in the first place.

This is where the political responsibility of Nigerians becomes important.

The call to support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress should not mean blind loyalty. It should mean supporting the policies that are working, demanding improvements where policies are failing, demanding transparency from government, and insisting that the gains of economic reform reach the ordinary citizen.

Political support should be a contract with the future.

The Renewed Hope agenda must ultimately become more than a presidential slogan. It must become a national project in which government, business, workers, farmers, students, professionals, entrepreneurs and the Nigerian diaspora participate.

The objective must be simple: build a Nigeria where our children do not have to leave the country to discover opportunity; where our crude oil is refined at home; where agriculture feeds the nation and creates wealth; where universities remain open; where technology creates jobs; where our ports become engines of commerce; where infrastructure connects communities; where Nigerian businesses can compete globally; and where the ordinary citizen can finally feel that economic growth has a human face.

President Tinubu’s first three years have been years of disruption, sacrifice and reconstruction. The next phase must be about translating macroeconomic reform into household prosperity.

That is the bridge Nigeria must cross.

We should therefore look beyond the immediate discomfort and examine the architecture being constructed underneath it. We should question government, scrutinise government and demand results from government—but we should also recognise genuine progress when it occurs.

Nigeria cannot build its future through perpetual political bitterness.

We must build it through continuity, reform, accountability, investment and national purpose.

The Nigeria of our dreams will not be inherited. It must be constructed.

And if the reforms now underway are to mature into the prosperous, productive and globally competitive Nigeria we desire, then Nigerians across political, ethnic, religious and regional lines must participate in the project of national renewal.

The task before us is no longer simply to ask whether Nigeria can change.

The task is to make sure that Nigeria changes for the better—and that every Nigerian eventually feels the difference.
By: Jide Adesina | 1stafrika.com